New test may predict dementia up to 9 years before diagnosis with 80% accuracy

  • A new machine learning model can predict the eventual occurrence of dementia, according to a new study.
  • Its authors say the model is greater than 80% accurate and can predict disease up to nine years early.
  • The study focused on all-cause dementia, as well as risk factors for Alzheimer’s disease, the most common type of dementia.

A new test can predict dementia with 82% accuracy, according to researchers at Queen Mary University of London in the U.K.

Analyzing 1,111 functional magnetic resonance imaging (fMRI) scans of people with and without dementia, the researchers produced a model using machine learning. They say it spots the telltale signs of dementia up to nine years before diagnosis.

The model identifies changes in the brain’s default mode network (DMN)Trusted Source. The DMN is active when a person is lying in an fMRI scanner, not doing anything. The DMN state is believed to play a role in daydreaming and introspection, among other activities. It is more active when a person is at rest or engaged in self-referential thought.

The researchers collected the fMRI scans used in the study from the UK Biobank. The participants included 81 people who had not been diagnosed with dementia at the time their scans were taken, but who developed the condition up to nine years afterward. For comparison, 1,030 people served as matched controls for the study.

The researchers examined disconnects between 10 key regions within the DMN, using machine learning to construct their model.

When they applied their model to medical records of the participants, they found it accurately predicted dementia within a two-year window during which is when such a diagnosis would occur.

The authors of the study also looked for associations between DMN disconnectivity and various dementia risk factors. They found links between the model and social isolation — which has been linked to the likelihood of developing Alzheimer’s disease — as well as a genetic risk for the condition.

The hope is that early detection may one day provide a chance for early interventions that may forestall or prevent dementia.

The study is published in Nature Mental HealthTrusted Source.

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